Q1 2017 Performance Update

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My Q1 2017 Performance: Down .11%

S&P 500 Q1 2017 Performance: Up 5.53%

My portfolio is regularly tracked here.

The S&P 500 had an amazing quarter and I had a lackluster one in relative terms. Overall I’m down 2% since I started tracking the portfolio in mid December 2016. At one point I was down 5% earlier this quarter.

Anti-Amazon Trade (GME, CATO, DDS, AEO)

Much of my under-performance is attributable to my anti-Amazon trade. As mentioned in the earlier post, the conventional wisdom is that Amazon is going to destroy conventional retail. I remain unconvinced that retail is going to die. People will always shop in physical stores. While retail may be in decline, it will not go away. For clothing in particular, people will always want to see the item and try it on. There is also the instant gratification aspect of conventional retail that will allow it to endure. Moreover, no matter how technologically sophisticated we become, people will always want to leave the house and occasionally go shopping. They are not going to hang out at home all day and never shop in a physical location again. Even Amazon realizes this truth, which is why I find it amusing that they are thinking about expanding into physical retail!

My unsophisticated thesis is simple: the retail stocks are all priced like retail is going to die soon and I don’t think it is going to happen. Simultaneously, the price of Amazon has been bid up to an extreme P/E ratio (180.98) and the momentum continues.

While I may be early to the anti-Amazon trade, I don’t think I am wrong. Predicting when the market will accurately value a stock is not possible. You can only buy when there is a mismatch between price and intrinsic value and wait.

IDT

IDT is my worst performer. During the week of March 6th after reporting disappointing earnings, the stock collapsed from $19.50 to $13.11, a decline of 33%. The stock plummeted further to $12.03. I was certainly wrong on this one, but I do not want to sell. $5.66 of that $12 price is cash. IDT has no debt. They also aren’t cutting their dividend and while the core business is struggling, it’s not dying. I’m sticking with it.

MN

Manning and Napier is also not doing well. Active management continues to be punished after the amazing track record of the indexes since 2009. Investors don’t want to pay high fees to asset managers when they can buy a low-cost index fund that will outperform them. Assets under management are declining, which is hurting the business. I don’t think this trend will last forever and in the meantime I am at least being paid a nice dividend yield to own Manning and Napier. The company currently has a negative enterprise value, with the current price less than the cash on hand, which currently stands at $9.19 per share. It’s a ridiculously cheap stock and the slightest glimmer of hope should allow me to take at least one free puff from this cigar butt.

Bubble Basket

David Einhorn refers to a “bubble basket” that he’s short on, which includes Amazon and Netflix. Q1 2017 was a good time for bubble basket. Tesla, a company with no earnings trading at 6.48 times revenue, is up 30% year to date. Amazon is up 18.23% and trades at 180 times earnings. Netflix, trading at 347 times earnings, is up 19.39%. Facebook, trading at 40 times earnings, is up 23.47% year to date. These are simply crazy valuations and I suspect they eventually they will go down in history with the Nifty Fifty.

Snapchat also debuted on the markets this quarter, as a symbolic representation of the frothy mood. The IPO felt like a flashback to the late ’90s, when an IPO and a dot com at the end of a name was a key to instant riches. SNAP has no earnings, $404 million in revenue. $27.11 billion market cap. This isn’t Pets.com crazy, but it’s still pretty crazy.

Einhorn is losing money shorting these stocks, but I still think he’s right. Therein lies the problem with shorting: there is no way to predict how long the market will be crazy and ignore reality. It will eventually happen, but there is no telling how long it will take.

If you’re short and the stock goes up 100%: you lost all of your money. This is why shorting technology stocks in the ’90s was a risky move even though there was a bubble and the shorts were vindicated. If you were early to the short (in, say, 1998), then you would have lost a tremendous amount of money even though the thesis was vindicated in the early 2000s. Take a look at the percentage returns for the NASDAQ 100 from 1998 through 2002:

1998: Up 85.30%

1999: Up 101.95%

2000: Down 36.84%

2001: Down 32.65%

2002: Down 37.58%

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes

That is why I don’t short stocks or use leverage. Timing is hard, even if you’re a pro like Einhorn. If Einhorn can’t do it, then I certainly can’t do it!

Portfolio Value

On an EBITDA/Enterprise Value basis, many of the worst performing stocks in my portfolio are some of the most attractively valued. Why sell now?

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The frequent under-performance of value strategies is a key reason that they outperform over the long run.

If a fund manager delivered the kind of relative under performance that I delivered this quarter, they would probably be yelled at by their boss or at the very least forced to endure a healthy dose of corporate passive aggressiveness.

It’s moments like this (which can last years) during which there is a strong incentive to simply buy stocks that look like the S&P 500 or had some recent momentum. This strategy is a recipe for long term under-performance.

Behaviorally, it is easier to go with the crowd. If you’re right and the crowd is right, then you’re doing great! If you’re wrong and the crowd is wrong, then at least everybody else was wrong too!

If, however, you take a contrarian opinion and the crowd is right and you’re wrong (as I am with the anti-Amazon trade for now) then you lose your job. Contrarian opinions are eminently risky. Things are even more behaviorally difficult when you look at the companies in a value portfolio. Why am I even investing in this garbage? Everybody knows that retail is dead, Gamestop will be replaced by streaming video games, etc. This makes it all the easier to click that tempting “sell” button and end the pain.

This is why having one investor (me!) and no boss is advantageous and makes for better investing.

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Full disclosure: my current holdings.  Read the full disclaimer.

6 thoughts on “Q1 2017 Performance Update”

  1. Hey,

    Foot Locker reported better than expected same store sales for the month. Retail stocks are trending higher as I type these.

    I hope your portfolio catches up and beats SP500.

    All the best

    Like

  2. Cool blog.

    We have about the same idea.

    You have more money to devote to it, though.

    Most of my money is in a 401k. I own an IRA I just started for this value experiment.

    I only own 2 names you have: CTB & GBX.

    I used to own IDCC which you mentioned on your blog, but I noticed in their 10-K that half their revenue was non recurring, so I sold it.

    Cheers!

    Like

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