Category Archives: Company Analysis

Lousiana Pacific Corporation (LPX)

lpx

Key Statistics

Enterprise Value = $2.76 billion

Operating Income = $669.4 million

EV/Operating Income = 4.12x

Earnings Yield = 15%

Price/Revenue = 1.15x

Debt/Equity = 20%

The Company

Lousiana Pacific (LPX) is a Nashville based company that manufactures building products. The core of the business is the manufacture of oriented strand board (OSB). OSB is created from wood flakes and then bound together with adhesives. OSB is used heavily in the construction of new homes.

LPX also has a siding business. They manufacture vinyl, stucco, brick, and fiber cement siding. They also have a business in engineered wood products (EWP), used mainly for flooring. LPX also possesses an operation in South America.

The revenue breakdown is below:

lpxrevenue

The fortunes of LPX are tied at the hip to the construction of new homes. While engineered wood products and siding help diversify the sources of revenue, OSB represents a massive component of total sales. The volatile pricing of OSB can dramatically affect LPX’s earnings power.

Currently, the market is concerned that LPX’s earnings are at a cyclical peak. From September 30th through October 22nd, the stock declined from a $30.93 high to a low of $21.42. The stock price reacted to a corresponding 60% collapse in the price of OSB.  As OSB is such a significant component of LPX’s business, the price move in OSB translated into a 30% stock decline for LPX.

The question at hand is whether the decline in the price for OSB was a rational response to supply and demand dynamics, or whether it was driven by irrational fear of a US recession, a fear which caused a sell off in many different markets last fall. Market participants clearly believe that OSB was at a cyclical peak last summer. The sentiment is that housing is peaking and is about to get crushed, at usually happens during a recession.

Fortunately, the collapse in the price of OSB has not yet caused a significant operational slip in LPX’s results. In Q3 2018, LPX earned 86 cents a share. This compared to 76 cents earned in Q3 2017.

My Take

The burning question right now is: are we going to have a recession in the next year? As I’ve chronicled on this blog, I don’t think so. I chronicled the reasons why in my year end post.

The fortunes of LPX depend on demand for brand new homes. New home construction is intensely cyclical and falls off a cliff when the economy enters a recession.

The conventional thinking right now is that the US is headed for a recession. The current expansion is 10 years old, the Fed is hiking, the party is over, and housing is utterly screwed.

I disagree. Not only do I think the US is not headed for a recession, I also think that housing construction is still low and has room to expand.

Here is a summary of US housing starts since 1959:

housingstarts

Because housing starts have been growing since 2009, it doesn’t mean that they are by any means robust when compared to past expansions. It merely feels that way because the previous bust was so sharp and severe. In reality, we’re still below the average level of starts since 1959, and we’re nowhere near a red-hot level of housing starts which we experienced in the mid-2000s, the mid-80s, late ’70s, or late ’60s.

It looks to me like housing starts have more room to run, which is why I think LPX’s earnings are not at a cyclical peak, which is the prevailing sentiment right now. This would also mean that the price decline in OSB was an overreaction to the intense fear of recession which gripped markets late last year.

If I’m wrong and we do have a recession, I doubt that housing starts will be decimated like they were in 2008. If the current boom never went to an extreme level, then it’s logical that the bust will not be as severe either. This is what happened in the early 2000s. In the late 1990s, the stock market went crazy, but the housing market remained subdued and didn’t participate in that financial mania. As a result, housing held up well during the bust of the early 2000s. Once the Fed cut interest rates to deal with the early 2000s bust, the housing market was actually buoyed. Ironically, this experience led to a widespread public perception that real estate was a safer alternative to stocks and this perception helped fuel the mid-2000s housing bubble.

The cheap valuation and excellent financial position of LPX also prevent a permanent loss of capital. LPX currently has a debt to equity ratio of 20% and possesses a cash-rich balance sheet with cash & equivalents presently at $6.86 per share. The Piotroski F-Score is currently a nearly perfect 8 out of 9.

The stock currently trades at multiples below the industry average and its historical averages. The P/E of 6.87 compares to an industry average of 11.17 and a 4-year average for LPX of 13.31. The enterprise multiple of 4.12x compares to a 4-year average of 9x, which is a sensible valuation for such a financially high-quality company.

In summary, I think LPX is undervalued because the market is incorrectly surmising that new home construction is at a cyclical peak. Additionally, I believe that the current valuation and financial quality of the company provides a sufficient margin of safety if this thesis is wrong.

Random

I’ve been listening to this a lot lately:

 

 

 

Which reminds me of this:

 

 

 

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Full disclosure: my current holdings.  Read the full disclaimer.

ProPetro Holding Corp (PUMP)

pump

Key Statistics

Enterprise Value = $1.024 billion

Operating Income = $233.82 million

EV/Operating Income = 4.38x

Earnings Yield = 13%

Price/Revenue = .63x

Debt/Equity = 17%

The Company

ProPetro is a Midland, Texas-based oilfield services company. The company’s focus is providing equipment and services to support the fracking industry with a concentration in the Permian Basin.

The Permian Basin is an ocean of oil, currently producing 2 million barrels of oil a day. PUMP owns and operates a fleet of mobile hydraulic fracturing units. Other companies pay ProPetro for the use of these units, along with the supporting crew which operates the equipment. They provide equipment, personnel, and services to meet the needs of their clients that work in the Permian Basin. They have strong relationships with their clients and are local to the Permian basin, giving them a substantial advantage in this region due to the relationships that they have in place.

This is a company whose fortunes are directly tied to the performance of fracking in the United States, which is directly linked to oil prices.

wti

Oil has been hammered recently, which led to a decline in the stock price.

PUMP has been punished further in the recent market sell-off, pushing it below its 2017 IPO price of $14.50. This is a small company in a rocky industry and has been, in my opinion, oversold because it is perceived as a risky small cap in a risky industry.

My Take

I am optimistic about the fracking industry, primarily due to the fact that it defied all expectations and survived the misery of the 2015-16 oil price crash. This was a crash that was engineered by Saudis who increased oil production to cripple the fracking industry in the United States. Fracking is only profitable at high oil prices, and the Saudis hoped to cripple the industry by boosting production and lowering the price. They did not succeed despite their best efforts and fracking, while damaged over the crash, survived the crash.

With that said, there is a lot to dislike about the industry. The oil crash of 2015-16 led to a string of bankruptcies among the highly indebted companies in the space. There is also criticism that the industry is too capital intensive and can’t produce sufficient free cash flow to be viable for the long run. The only thing supporting the industry, critics say, is a flood of cheap money from yield-hungry investors and greedy Wall Street banks determined to earn fees while they hold their nose over the stench of crappy deals. Adding more support to the “ick” factor is the environmental criticism of the industry.

Add up all of this and what do you get? An industry ripe for mispricing because of the revulsion is creates. I think ProPetro has been punished unnecessarily by this sentiment.

The speculative nature of this trade is that I am betting that oil prices are close to a cyclical low. The Saudis seem strongly incentivized to increase the price of oil, and they are already taking action to make this happen. They want to take Aramco public in the near future. To get the best possible offering price, they need to maximize the price of oil. This is going to benefit fracking, to the long-term detriment of Saudi Arabia but it will support their short-term interest to maximize the price of oil so they can get the most money out of their IPO.

ProPetro is uniquely positioned as one of the key players in the Permian Basin, which is a hub of fracking activity in the United States. They will benefit immensely by an increase in oil prices.

Even if I am wrong and oil heads lower, ProPetro held up nicely during the 2015-16 crash. They were able to eke out positive operating income in 2015 of $8.78 million and lost only $37.38 million in operating income in 2016. Once oil prices bounced back slightly in 2017, ProPetro came back to life and generated an operating income of $63 million. This suggests to me that even if my thesis is wrong, ProPetro should survive a downturn in the fracking industry and minimize my losses. Furthermore, I purchased the stock at such a significant discount to intrinsic value (4.38x Operating Income, a 13% earnings yield, and only 5 times cash flow), that the stock price should hold up in a downturn.

If my thesis is correct and the Saudis engineer a hike in oil prices to support their IPO, fracking in the United States ought to boom and ProPetro’s multiple ought to improve significantly.

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Full disclosure: my current holdings.  Read the full disclaimer.

Nucor (NUE)

nucor

Key Statistics

Enterprise Value = $19.038 billion

Operating Income = $2.726 billion

EV/Operating Income = 6.98x

Earnings Yield = 13%

Price/Revenue = .68x

Debt/Equity = 44%

The Company

Nucor exclusively produces steel via minimills. Minimills take in scrap steel, vehicles, or equipment and melt them down in a furnace. Nucor uses electric arc furnaces, which heat the raw materials up to temperatures of over 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit to melt the metal down. The melted down steel is then re-purposed and sold. Nucor is the largest operator of steel minimills in the United States.

The cheap valuation is a result of the recent market sell-off combined with Nucor’s strong earnings in the last couple of years. The market seems to be indicating its belief that we are headed for a recession and steel demand is near a cyclical peak.

My Take

Nucor’s business prospects are driven by demand for steel and steel products. With strong US and global growth, Nucor has benefitted. A bet on Nucor is a bet that the economy will continue to grow and will not enter a recession. As I’ve stated previously on the blog, I do not believe that the US will enter a downturn in the next year.

I also think it’s possible that demand for steel can increase from current levels. With the Democrats seizing control of Congress and Donald Trump’s attitude towards deficits and spending, I think it’s possible that a big infrastructure bill could pass through Congress. This would be excellent for steel demand and could help boost earnings and sales from already strong levels. Infrastructure spending is probably the only area that Congressional Democrats and Donald Trump can find common ground.

Nucor has been expanding in recent years, pursuing a strategy aimed at growing its business. Recently on November 29th, they acquired a Mexican precision castings company called Corporacion POK, S.A. de C.V. In 2016, they acquired Independence Tube Corporation for $430 million. In 2014, they bought Gallatin Steel for $779 million in cash. The acquisition is in addition to Nucor’s investment in its existing capacity. They spent $230 million on a cold mill in their Arkansas facility, allowing it to manufacture more advanced low alloy steel products. They are also building new minimills in the United States, including a $250 million facility in Missouri. All of these efforts, I believe, will strengthen Nucor’s competitive position within their industry.

Nucor is financially healthy. They currently have a perfect F-Score of 9. The debt/equity ratio of 44% and the current ratio of 2.77x indicates that debt is at healthy levels. This is particularly impressive considering that they have been expanding and acquiring new businesses over the last few years. The Z-Score of 4.23 implies a very low risk of bankruptcy in the upcoming year.

Nucor’s valuations look favorable compared to its own history and its industry. The P/E of 7.9 compares to an industry average of 12.18. An increase to this level would be a 54% increase from current levels. Nucor’s average P/E over the last 5 years is 25.28. On a price/revenue basis, Nucor currently trades at 68% of revenue, compared to an industry average of 159%. On an EV/EBIT basis, Nucor trades at a multiple of 7x, compared to a 5-year average of 15.

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Full disclosure: my current holdings.  Read the full disclaimer.

Gap (GPS)

mall

Key Statistics

Enterprise Value = $9.397 billion

Operating Income = $1.386 billion

EV/Operating Income = 6.77x

Earnings Yield = 10%

Price/Revenue = .56x

Debt/Equity = 36%

The Company

Gap is a retailer. Have you been to the mall in the last 20 years? Have you seen its commercials trying to convince you to buy khakis? I’m fairly certain you’re familiar with them. (Personally, I buy most of clothes at K-Mart, Wal Mart, and Costco, but whatever.)

The company is not simply the Gap stores in malls. They also own Banana Republic and Old Navy. Banana Republic is pricier than both Old Navy and Gap. Old Navy is the discount apparel retailer that is currently driving the company’s growth. Old Navy has continued growing while the other two segments have been in decline. Old Navy grew sales by 6% in 2017 while both Gap and Bananan Republic experienced sales decline as customers shy away from the mall.

Gap was beat up by the retail carnage a few years ago. From 2014 through its 2016 low, Gap went from around $40/share to a low of $17 in mid-2016. From there, as Mr. Market woke up and realized that most apparel transactions still happen in a store, the stock recovered to $35 in January 2018.

From the heights of $35/share, the stock has been punished again over the last year after some choppy quarters, but the news has hardly been devastating. The stock has also been punished by concerns over a trade war that isn’t yet showing up in the actual results.

My Take

Yes, I’m diving back into this category again – retailers punished by the sentiment that Amazon is eating brick and mortar retail. I keep ignoring the warnings. Like Z’Ha’Dum, the advice is: if you go there, you will die. I keep going there anyway.

Anyway, I think I made a few good picks in the retail sector (American Eagle, Dillard’s, Foot Locker, Dick’s), but this area has largely been a wasteland for my portfolio. Fortunately, I exited the dumpster fires like Francesca’s and Big Five after they posted operating losses. I even got out of Big Five for a slight profit! This is shocking considering the stock is down 68% year to date. In retrospect, the best way to play a beaten up sector is to own more of them in smaller chunks. I made “big” bets on a small handful of dirt cheap ones, but I probably should have been more diversified among a broad number of stocks in the group.

The trade is now played out. Retail recovered as a sector, even though I didn’t always have the right picks. Even after that after the run up, Gap looks to me like one of the best of the bunch and the multiple has been compressed due to some slight underperformance in business results along with trade war jitters.

Gap hasn’t posted a loss at any point in the last decade. Even in the depths of the Great Recession, it still earned $1.34/share. It has also maintained profitability throughout the last few years of intense competition with online brands. They also began a restructuring effort in 2016, which is working. They closed 75 stores internationally that were not performing and realized a $275 million cost savings. I find this encouraging, especially compared to my experience in Francesca’s, which continued to open new stores even while the existing stores were posting terrible results. Gap has a strong shareholder orientation in this regard.

Gap is very well run with a high degree of financial quality. The F-Score is a perfect 9 out of 9. The Altman Z-Score is currently 4.73, implying an extremely low risk of bankruptcy. The debt to equity ratio of 36% compares favorably to industry averages, which currently averages 68%. The company also has a high degree of yield. Last year, they bought back 2% of the existing share count and the current dividend yield is 3.94%.

Gap’s current valuations compare favorably to the industry and its history. Gap’s current P/E of 10.29 compares to an industry average of 14.32. A P/E of 14-15 seems reasonable to me for a steadily performing and financially healthy retailer. On a price/sales basis, Gap’s current ratio of 56% compares to a 5-year average of 83%. On an EV/EBIT basis, Gap’s current level of 6.77x compares to its 5-year average of 7.68. The forward P/E is 9, implying analysts don’t expect any kind of operational loss in the upcoming year.

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Full disclosure: my current holdings.  Read the full disclaimer.

First American Financial (FAF)

house

Key Statistics

Enterprise Value = $3.245 billion

Operating Income = $689 million

EV/Operating Income = 4.7x

Earnings Yield = 12%

Price/Revenue = .84x

Debt/Equity = 22%

The Company

First American Financial is a California based insurance company. Their focus is title insurance, from which roughly 92% of their revenue is derived. Title insurance is simply insurance which protects against losses if a title is deficient.

FAF is paid when mortgage transactions closed. With the real estate market in the United States steadily growing over the last decade, the company has benefited from real estate activity. Since 2013, earnings are up 119%.

The title business improves due to volume and the premium paid for title insurance is derivative of the home’s value. Therefore, FAF benefits from a rising real estate environment. The stock has been punished over the last year due to concerns that this real estate expansion is slowing down.

FAF also maintains an investment portfolio, which is mostly concentrated in fixed income instruments. Currently, they have $4.7 billion in fixed income instruments and $467 million in equity. For this reason, the pressure experienced by the markets in recent months has weighed upon the price. From 2016 to 2017, the investment portfolio increased in size by 157%. If we entered a serious downturn, it is unlikely that that this would persist.

Side note: In the summer of 2001, I had a job working for a title insurance company. My task was simply to spend all day calling title abstractors across the country. I would order title reports from the counties in which the properties were purchased, they would fax it to me, and it was my job to regularly follow up with them. I had a lot of fun doing it! I’m sure the operation is more sophisticated these days, but back then obtaining the reports from the local abstractors was like pulling teeth.

My Take

I owned this back in 2017 and made a 50% profit on it. It is one of my few successes over the last couple of years. I bought it around a P/E of 12. When I sold it, the multiple was around 20, and I made a 50% profit, so I got out. The stock is way down from those lofty levels, and it is now at a P/E of 8.

From a relative valuation standpoint, FAF looks like it is at an attractive level. The P/E of 8 compares to a 5-year average for the stock of 15. The average for the industry is also 15. On a price/revenue basis, the stock currently trades at 84% of revenue compared to an industry average of 125%.

With an F-Score of 6 and a low debt/equity ratio of 22%, the company exhibits a high degree of financial quality. Indeed, FAF is a well run company and this has buoyed its ability to consistently grow over the last decade. Additionally, while title abstracts and insurances looks like an area ripe for disruption, to truly streamline this industry would require many local governments throughout the country to upgrade their technology and systems used to track title information. I don’t think this will happen any time soon.

I expect that FAF will continue to perform well and I don’t think there will be a recession in the next year as many pundits are predicting right now. With that said, even in the midst of the 2008 real estate meltdown, FAF only lost 81 cents per share and quickly recovered to profitability in 2009. I would be shocked if the US entered a real estate meltdown of that magnitude. By all indications, the quality of mortgage loans has improved and household mortgage debt looks sustainable when compared to the disposable income of households.

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Full disclosure: my current holdings.  Read the full disclaimer.

Amtech Systems (ASYS)

winter

Key Statistics

Market Capitalization = $66.96 million

Cash & Equivalents = $62.50 million

Current Assets = $124.29 million

Total Liabilities = $56.32 million

Net Current Asset Value = $67.97 million

Z-Score = 2.45

The Company

Amtech operates three segments in three industries: (1) Semiconductors, representing 45% of revenue, (2) Solar cells, representing 47% of revenue, and (3) Polishing of newly sliced silicon wafers, representing 8% of revenue. They supply components and materials used in the manufacture of semiconductors and solar panels.

While the company has produced profits and cash flows for the last couple of years, the market believes semiconductor and solar revenues hit a cyclical peak this year and that the company is doomed to return to its loss-making years. In 2014, 2015, and 2016 Amtech generated net income losses of $13.09 million, $12.94 million, and $7.91 million respectively.

You see this same sentiment in mega caps like Micron, another one of my holdings. For a micro-cap stock like this, this sentiment is producing brutal price declines – i.e., a company selling for less than the cash it has in the bank. Amtech is down 55% year to date.

For the solar business, in particular, the industry is subject to brutal pricing pressure and is likely not a “good” business going forward. Solar projects are being shelved due to the President’s trade war and inclinations against the solar industry.

Furthermore, the company is diluting the shareholders. They have issued shares in the last year and the share count is up 8.37%.

My Take

Amtech is operating in a brutally competitive industry that appears to have peaked, they are issuing shares, and the situation appears grim. Why am I buying this stock?

I bought this because of the absurd valuation. This currently trades below net current asset value and for roughly the cash that they have in the bank.

Usually, when a net-net is this cheap, there are usually catastrophic losses going on. There is typically an asset value, but the market believes that the asset value will quickly go away due to losses. The risk is usually that the company will piss away the cash and the company will go out of business. This is not the case here. With a Z-Score of 2.45, the risk of bankruptcy is minimal. The company is also producing cash flows and earnings, which is extremely unusual for something trading this cheap. In 2017, they made $9.13 million in net income. In 2018, they made $5.31 million. They also produced free cash flow for the last couple of years, generated $5.3 million of free cash flow in FY2018 and $10.53 million in 2017.

There is also a high degree of insider ownership, with insiders owning 15.63% of the company. This is a positive sign, as insiders have a strong incentive to keep the business afloat.

I have no idea if semiconductor and solar demand is at a cyclical peak. As a value investor, I am drawn to the industries where Mr. Market is fretting, stressing, and creating potential bargains. Amtech seems like a compelling bargain to me. Even if the business is at a cyclical peak, I don’t think it matters for a stock like this. Frankly, I would be attracted to this stock even if it were producing losses.

When a company sells for the cash in the bank, all it needs to do to perform well is to simply survive. The question I am trying to answer is: Will Amtech exist a year from now? Will they maintain the current asset value? With a high degree of insider ownership and steady cash flows, I think the answer to both questions is yes. When a net-net like this is generating profits and cash flows, it seems like a compelling opportunity.

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Full disclosure: my current holdings.  Read the full disclaimer.

Oshkosh Corp (OSK)

osk

Key Statistics

Enterprise Value = $4.996 billion

Operating Income = $639.4 million

EV/Operating Income = 7.8x

Earnings Yield = 10%

Price/Revenue = .6x

Debt/Equity = 33%

The Company

Oshkosh is a 101-year-old company that focuses on building specially designed trucks and military vehicles. The company headquarters is in Oshkosh, Wisconsin. They began in 1917 by creating the first all-wheel-drive truck, known as “Old Betsy.” Throughout the last century, they’ve expanded into making many other types of vehicles. They make off-road trucks, fire trucks, farm equipment, and vehicles for the US military.

The stock has gone down in the last year over jitters concerning tariffs and trade wars. Of principal concern is the impact that tariffs will have on many of the components and raw materials that they use to build vehicles. The stock is presently down 30% year to date over these worries.

My Take

While the stock has gone down in the last year over tariff worries, the actual business is performing well. Revenues were up 12.8% in 2018 from 2017. Operating income was up 32%. Oshkosh is also in excellent financial condition with an F-Score of 8 and a debt/equity ratio that is nearly half of the industry average.

Their close ties with the US government give the company an excellent competitive advantage. For many key vehicles, such as the Oshkosh Light Combat Tactical All-Terrain Vehicle, they are the sole supplier to the US military. The ties with the US military are also long-standing, and they have been selling vehicles to the US military for 90 years. Sales to the US government presently account for 20% of their revenue. The ties with the military also strengthen their reputation in the private sector as a reliable manufacturer of sturdy, quality vehicles.

A major risk to the business would be a decline in the US defense budget. Based on the biases of the current White House occupant, I don’t think that is a serious possibility. Another major risk would be a US recession. While the stock market is fretting over this, I am not very concerned about it, particularly over the next year. The market might also be correct and a trade war will adversely affect the company, but this is speculation that is not showing up in the actual performance of the business. At the moment, this doesn’t appear to be the case.

From a relative valuation standpoint, Oshkosh trades at valuation multiples that are attractive compared to its history and its industry. Oshkosh currently has a P/E of 10.15, compared to an industry average of 18.85 and a five year average of 17.10 for Oshkosh itself. An increase to these levels would be a 68% increase from current levels. Trading at 60% of revenue, this compares to an industry average of 119%. On an EV/EBIT basis, Oshkosh currently trades at 7.8x compared to a 5-year average of 11.44.

Overall, I think Oshkosh is an excellent company with a deep history of solid performance and a stable competitive position. The stock has gone through pain over macro concerns that are not showing up in the real operating performance of the company. At the current valuation, I think it is an attractive choice.

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Full disclosure: my current holdings.  Read the full disclaimer.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS)

rs

Key Statistics

Enterprise Value = $7.281 billion

Operating Income = $968.3 million

EV/Operating Income = 7.52x

Price/Revenue = .47x

Earnings Yield = 16%

Debt/Equity = 41%

The Company

Reliance Steel & Aluminum is a Los Angeles based metals company. They are the largest metal service center operator in North America. Metal service centers take raw metals and convert them into products that meet customer specified products. They currently have 125,000 customers across a wide range of industries. They distribute 100,000 metals products including stainless and special steel, aluminum, brass, copper products, etc. While it has only been a public company since 1994, they have been in business since 1939 and have grown through the growth of the US economy and acquisitions.

Sentiment against the stock isn’t quite in the realm of hatred. It is more like mild reluctance. Year to date, the stock is down 15.9% mostly due to jitters about Tariff Man raising metals prices and dampening demand.

My Take

I believe this is a situation where macro worries are dampening enthusiasm for the stock and these worries aren’t showing up in the actual performance of the business. The company is still delivering solid returns on capital, currently boasting an 18% return on equity. Its size and breadth of the customer base is also a significant strength.

If the steel industry does enter a downturn, Reliance Steel & Aluminum is actually in a great position to strengthen its competitive position through the acquisition of smaller competitors. Their financial situation is impeccable, with an F-Score of 9 and a debt to equity ratio of 41%.

From a valuation standpoint, the company is at a significant discount to its history and industry averages. The current P/E of 6 (forward P/E is 9). This compares to an industry average of 13. The 5-year average for the company is a P/E of 14.77. An increase from the forward P/E of 9 to its historical average would be an increase of 64%. The enterprise multiple of 7.52 compares to a 5-year average of 11, a 45% discount. On a price/revenue basis, it currently trades at 47% compared to an industry average of 162%.

Overall, Reliance Steel & Aluminum is in a strong financial position with a dominant position in a competitive business. It trades at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, providing an ample margin of safety.

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Full disclosure: my current holdings.  Read the full disclaimer.

Universal Forest Products (UFPI)

ufpi

Key Statistics

Enterprise Value = $1.83 billion

Operating Income = $196 million

EV/Operating Income = 9.33x

Price/Revenue = .36x

Earnings Yield = 9%

Debt/Equity = 20%

The Company

Universal Forest Products (UFPI) designs, manufactures and markets wood products around the world. They supply lumber directly, while also supplying lumber products for everything from wooden crates to wood products used in manufactured homes and RV’s. While they have a global footprint, their focus is in the United States. A major source of business is their supply of lumber to Home Depot, which accounted for 19% of their total revenue in 2017.

UFPI grows organically with the economy. Growth over the last ten years has been steady with the US economic expansion.

ufpibus

Market sentiment is against this stock despite its rapid growth over the last few years. The stock is down 29% over the previous year while earnings in the most recent quarter were up 20% during the last year. Fear is being driven by the slowdown in the US real estate market and current market fears that the US economy is headed for a recession. The housing market has slowed down recently, bringing up fresh doubts about the lumber business and fueling concerns that UFPI’s earnings are at a cyclical peak.

My Take

This is a cyclical stock, and I am buying it based on my belief that the US will not go into recession over the next year. The short end of the yield curve inverted, the long end hasn’t yet, and we typically have 2 years after inversion in the long end before we actually have a recession. What’s a more reliable forecasting tool? Mr. Market’s freak out over the last couple of months, or the yield curve?

Worries over housing are actually worries over a redux of the 2008 housing meltdown. Even if we do experience a slowdown in housing, I don’t think it will be anything like that meltdown. The quality of borrowers is significantly better than it was last decade. Credit scores for first-time homebuyers, for instance, are up significantly over the mid-2000s euphoric Red bull and Vodka soaked housing bubble that left the US in financial ruin. I also think there is plenty of pent-up demand for housing from Millennials. Mortgage debt service payments as a percent of disposable income are also at the lowest levels since we started tracking it. In short: I think worries about a housing slowdown are overblown.

mortgage

The stock has been punished in the previous year over macro worries that aren’t showing up in the actual results from the business. The most recent Q3 earnings were up 20% over the last year and profits were up 14.7% while the stock is down 29%. What is more real? What is more reliable? The actual performance of the business or the market’s speculation about macroeconomics? I know where I would prefer to place my bets.

This is a bucket I am going to focus more on. Namely, stocks that are getting punished over macro worries that aren’t actually showing up in the real performance of the business. It seems like an area that is ripe for mispricing.

From a relative valuation standpoint, UFPI’s valuation ratios compare favorably to its history and the industry averages. On a Price/Revenue basis, UFPI currently trades at 36% of revenue, compared to an industry average of 115%. UFPI currently has a P/E of 11, compared to an industry average of 17. Over the last 5 years, UFPI’s average P/E has been 19.5. A return to these levels would be an increase of 77%. On an EV/EBIT basis, UFPI currently trades at 9.33x compared to a 5-year average of 12.65.

Overall, UFPI currently trades at an attractive valuation, and it has been punished over macro worries that aren’t showing up in the actual business. For this reason, I have purchased a position.

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Full disclosure: my current holdings.  Read the full disclaimer.

Allstate (ALL)

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One of my favorite spots on a perfect fall day. Onto the analysis . . . 

Key Statistics

Enterprise Value = $27.791 billion

Operating Income = $4.283 billion

EV/Operating Income =6.48x

Price/Revenue = .73x

Earnings Yield = 12%

Debt/Equity = 27%

The Company

Allstate is the 4th biggest insurance company in the United States (as measured by market capitalization) and their main focus is automobile and homeowners insurance. Interesting bit of history: Allstate was established in 1931 by Sears. Allstate originally marketed policies via mail and the Sears catalog, which was revolutionary at the time. After 62 years of operating within Sears, it was spun off in 1993.

Market sentiment is relatively weak against Allstate. The stock is down 20% over the last year. The stock has been punished due to rising interest rates and various extreme weather events over the previous few years. There is also fear that the rise of autonomous vehicles will afflict Allstate’s insurance premiums in the long run.

My Take

From a quantitative perspective, Allstate appears to be an excellent company at a bargain price. At a P/E of 9, this compares to an industry average of 16.05. On a price/revenue basis, Allstate currently trades at 73% of revenue, compared to an industry average of 127%.  The forward P/E is presently 9, implying that Allstate is expected to maintain its current level of profitability by most analyst estimates. Allstate’s present valuation also compares favorably to its history. Allstate’s average P/E over the last 5 years is 13, 44% higher than current levels. On an EV/EBIT basis, Allstate’s average multiple in the previous 5 years was 8.5, which is 31% higher than current levels.

Allstate is also a well-run company. The F-Score is presently 7, which places it at a high degree of financial quality. Allstate also achieves better results than its competitors, producing a return on assets of 3.31% compared to an industry average of 1.91%. It delivers these results without excessive leverage, with a debt/equity ratio of 27%.

Allstate also grows organically with the economy, with operating income and revenues steadily increasing over time. The share price has increased with the growth in business over time.

allstate

Regarding short-term risks, the Fed is signaling that the rate hikes will end, which ought to stop the pressure on its bond and loan portfolio. There is also the risk of extreme risk events, such as terrible weather events in the upcoming year. That is a constant risk for insurance companies that don’t vary much from year to year and is built into Allstate’s pricing models. With a history going back 87 years, I’m reasonably sure that Allstate can handle a bad hurricane season, for instance.

As for long-term risks, the fears about the rise of autonomous vehicles seem silly to me. We are a long way off from widespread adoption of autonomous cars, considering that most people keep their cars for 11 years. Even when autonomous vehicles are widely adopted, you will still need someone to sue when the car gets into an accident. Even if the car can drive itself, the driver’s insurance is still going to be held responsible when the car makes an error. I don’t think we’ll ever see a day when it will be legal for the driver to hang out in the back seat drinking whiskey while the car whisks away to its destination with the driver completely free of responsibility.

In short, Allstate is a well run, defensive pick that is experiencing organic growth and currently trades at an attractive discount to average valuations within the industry and Allstate’s history.

PLEASE NOTE: The information provided on this site is not financial advice and it is for informational and discussion purposes only. Do your own homework. Full disclosure: my current holdings.  Read the full disclaimer.